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Supply Chain: Using artificial intelligence to estimate Surgical Capacity and Backlog due to COVID
Analytics for Living and Fenix Solutions Supply Chain Solutions enable real time insights by employing machine learning, artificial intelligence and cloud based mobile enabled visualizations.
COVID impact to surgical capacity
- UK: 28%, 10% and 12% of head & Neck cancer patients requiring surgery were delayed, radiotherapy and de-escalated
- USA: 35% decrease in surgical volumes
- WW and EU: 75-90% fewer surgical procedures
- Takeaway: Surgeries declined and for those that were able to have surgery the delay was significant which negatively impacted health.
Surgical capacity expansion initiatives
- Backlog: Health systems create a backlog of surgeries with many health systems implementing a criterion to proceed.
- Adaptation: Hospitals adapted the hospital to surgical areas and COVID areas to maintain surgical capacity but limited to emergent.
- Expansion: More surgeries moved to ambulatory care and outpatient centers. Typical inpatient procedures were moved to an ambulatory or outpatient location.
- Takeaway: Capacity re-direction is plug or bandaid but not sufficient to sustain for future waves.
Revenue impact with surgical capacity initiatives
- USA: $200B hospital financial losses
- EU: Healthcare system leave most vulnerable without healthcare and millions with no care.
- APAC: 40-50% shifted to wellness of staff vs. providing care. South Korea, Thailand down 40-60% in procedure revenues.
- LATAM: Region shortfalls in funding causing inability to restart access.
- Takeaway: Hospitals in the red and patients left without any place for emergent, semi-emergent or elective surgeries
Recommendations: Surgical Capacity expansion and Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence
- Implement small and large scale surgical capacity modeling using ML, AI and Simulation at health system and hospital integrated with ambulatory and outpatient.
- Cloud based computing providing hospital system capacity in real-time
- Operations role within hospital to plan surgeries for most in need.